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NASA says that the chances of the asteroid known as 2024 YR hitting Earth have been virtually eliminated, but it is now slightly more likely to collide with the Moon than previously thought.
Initially, the asteroid had a minimal chance of impacting Earth in 2032, but NASA has now reduced that probability to just 0.004%. However, the agency has updated its predictions, revealing that the odds of the asteroid striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, have increased from 1.7% to 3.8%.
Since the Moon lacks an atmosphere, a collision could generate a vast crater, flinging debris into space. Experts suggest that if 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon, some fragments could potentially fall back to Earth.
NASA will continue monitoring the space rock, with the possibility of revising its risk of impacting Earth, as more information becomes available. But where did the asteroid come from? And what role will it play in the future of our planet? Click through this gallery to find out.
A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, put astronomers on alert due to its 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Now, the probability has decreased to 0.004%.
So there's a high probability that it may safely pass by Earth. Future observations will help refine these probabilities and potentially dismiss the risk altogether.
The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet). A rock of this size, if it were to hit, could cause severe regional damage, similar to past asteroid impacts occurring every few thousand years.
Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, has compared the size of 2024 YR4 to that of a large building. There are still a few uncertainties surrounding its actual dimensions, which astronomers are working to clarify.
Astronomers estimate an asteroid’s size by measuring its brightness, since brighter objects tend to be larger. But because experts are unsure what 2024 YR4 is exactly made of and how reflective it is, they set upper and lower size limits.
If 2024 YR4 were on the larger end of its estimated size and impacted Earth, blast damage could extend 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site. This is enough to level most major cities. But such a scenario remains highly unlikely at this stage.
Speed amplifies the potential danger—if it were to strike Earth, the asteroid would enter the atmosphere at a staggering 38,028 mph (61,200 km/h), unleashing immense energy upon impact.
Astronomers at the ATLAS telescope in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. NASA funds multiple sky-scanning programs like ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) to detect near-Earth asteroids before they become a problem.
Automated asteroid-tracking systems immediately flagged 2024 YR4 as a potential risk, placing it at the top of NASA’s Sentry risk list and the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk chart by the end of 2024.
Since January 2025, astronomers have been using multiple observatories (including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, pictured, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile) to track and refine calculations on the asteroid’s size and path.
As 2024 YR4 moves away, it is currently 28 million miles (45 million km) from Earth and increasing that distance. Eventually, it will become too faint to track with smaller telescopes, requiring larger instruments for observation.
The asteroid will remain visible through early April 2025, before fading into the depths of space. It won’t return to Earth’s neighborhood until 2028, when fresh observations will refine its projected orbit for 2032.
If 2024 YR4 vanishes from view before scientists can confirm it won’t hit Earth, it will remain on asteroid risk lists until 2028, when it can be reobserved and reassessed.
The longer an asteroid is observed, the more accurate its predicted future position becomes. With additional data, the 6% impact probability could shrink to zero, meaning Earth would no longer be in harm’s way.
Asteroids often appear threatening when first discovered, but their impact probability usually drops as scientists refine their trajectories. The European Space Agency (ESA) has seen many such cases resolve peacefully over time.
NASA and ESA track thousands of near-Earth asteroids in the vastness of space, but some remain undiscovered due to their small size and tricky orbits. Advances in detection technology will improve asteroid-spotting capabilities in the future.
Currently, there are no large asteroids with a greater than 1% chance of hitting Earth. This suggests that for now, our planet remains relatively safe from major asteroid impacts.
Two United Nations-endorsed groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), have activated to analyze the potential threat and create response strategies.
IAWN is responsible for coordinating global efforts to track and study asteroids, ensuring that scientists share data and refine models to predict potential impacts as accurately as possible.
SMPAG is evaluating potential asteroid mitigation tactics—from deflection missions to regional evacuations—in case 2024 YR4 ever becomes a serious risk.
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which was conducted in 2022, demonstrated that it’s possible to change an asteroid’s trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it at high speed. This may become a viable defense strategy in the future.
DART’s impact in 2022 altered the orbit of Dimorphos, a small asteroid that was orbiting a larger one, by 32 minutes. This success confirmed that kinetic impact technology could be used to redirect potentially hazardous asteroids.
ESA currently has a space mission named Hera that is en route to study Dimorphos, and it will determine how much DART’s impact altered the asteroid’s shape and movement. This will provide key insights that will improve future asteroid deflection strategies in case of real-world planetary threats.
Testing asteroid deflection before a real threat arises is crucial. The data from DART and Hera will help refine planetary defense strategies, ensuring that if Earth ever faces an asteroid impact scenario, humanity is prepared to take effective action.
Despite the activation of response groups, experts emphasize that there is no need to panic. At this stage, 2024 YR4 is far more likely to miss Earth than to hit it, and upcoming observations will likely confirm it as harmless.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is sizable, but it’s far from a planet-shaking extinction event like the one that killed the dinosaurs. The asteroid that decimated the ancient reptiles measured between 6.2 and 9.3 miles (10 – 15 km) in width, while 2024 YR4 is no more than 328 feet (100 meters) wide.
Astronomers use the Torino scale to rank asteroid impact risks from 0 (harmless) to 10 (catastrophic). Currently, 2024 YR4 sits at 0 on the scale.
The vastness of space means that new asteroids are being discovered all the time. While most pass harmlessly by, some—like 2024 YR4—trigger alerts. Each discovery adds to our knowledge of the solar system and helps improve predictive models for future celestial encounters.
With each new observation, astronomers hope to narrow down uncertainties and eventually rule out any impact risk for 2032. If history is any indication, 2024 YR4 will likely be just another passing traveler in the endless vastness of space, leaving Earth unharmed.
Sources: (CNN) (The Independent) (NPR)
See also: Meteorite and asteroid impact craters found on Earth
Asteroid once heading to Earth could hit the Moon instead, scientists say
Some debris from the impact might fall back to Earth
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NASA says that the chances of the asteroid known as 2024 YR hitting Earth have been virtually eliminated, but it is now slightly more likely to collide with the Moon than previously thought.
Initially, the asteroid had a minimal chance of impacting Earth in 2032, but NASA has now reduced that probability to just 0.004%. However, the agency has updated its predictions, revealing that the odds of the asteroid striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, have increased from 1.7% to 3.8%.
Since the Moon lacks an atmosphere, a collision could generate a vast crater, flinging debris into space. Experts suggest that if 2024 YR4 strikes the Moon, some fragments could potentially fall back to Earth.
NASA will continue monitoring the space rock, with the possibility of revising its risk of impacting Earth, as more information becomes available. But where did the asteroid come from? And what role will it play in the future of our planet? Click through this gallery to find out.