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A study published on January 25, 2025, found that dangerous temperatures might result in a 50% increase in deaths among Europeans by 2100. The study looked at future heat-related and cold-related mortality considering climate change. It took into account demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. In this gallery, we’ll dive deep into the study and bring you the highlights. Click on to learn more.
A recent study attributed a projected net increase of 80,000 temperature-related deaths per year to the hottest scenario possible.
Even in an optimistic scenario, an extra 8,000 people would also die as a result of mild “suboptimal temperatures,” achieved by reducing pollution that increases the planet’s temperature.
It has been argued that an increase in temperature may be a good thing for society because fewer people will die from cold weather, but this study challenges that argument.
According to the study, heat-related deaths will outnumber those saved by milder winters.
“We wanted to test this. And we show clearly that we will see a net increase in temperature-related deaths under climate change,” said lead author of the sturdy Pierre Masselot, a statistician at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
The study looked at the link between temperature and mortality rates for different age groups. Data was analyzed for 854 European cities.
In the end, three climate scenarios were mapped. These look at changes in population and temperatures over the century, and ranged from low to high emissions.
In all three scenarios, the study found that more people will die of uncomfortably hot temperatures than they do today.
The region forecast to be hit the hardest by an increase in temperatures and deaths is southern Europe, especially around the Mediterranean.
Next comes central Europe. The area comprises Austria, Switzerland, Poland, and parts of southern Germany.
The part of Europe least affected by soaring temperatures will be northern Europe.
“In Norway, for instance, we might see a very slight benefit, [But this] is completely overshadowed by this massive increase we see in southern countries,” said Masselot.
Extreme temperatures can also affect the body and lead to death. In cold scenarios, hypothermia can set in. Cold spells can raise blood pressure and create a number of lung and heart problems.
And in the case of extreme heat, heatstroke is also a dangerous condition. The old and sick are particularly vulnerable during heatwaves.
“Put bluntly, the increase in hot weather will kill more people than the decrease in cold weather will save,” said Tim Osborn, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia.
Osborn highlighted the importance of this study. “While this new study isn’t the final say on the matter … it does break new ground by scrutinizing people’s vulnerability to extreme temperatures by age and by city to a much better level of detail than previous work,” he said.
The study considered European cities exclusively. This means that rural areas were not considered. These regions are less exposed to the urban heat island effect.
In total, the high heating scenario is expected to lead to an extra 2.3 million people dying in Europe between 2015 and 2099.
According to climate and health expert Madeleine Thomson, “extreme heat kills but it also causes a wide range of serious health problems.”
Extreme heat “has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, miscarriages, and poor mental health,” she added.
Erich Fischer, a climate scientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ) points out that “there are also legitimate arguments that this net effect is only of limited relevance.”
“If a new drug with serious side-effects that lead to countless deaths were approved, I would hardly argue that the drug saves about as many lives, or that the net effect could even be slightly positive in the short term despite the many deaths.”
“The good news is that we can adapt,” said Víctor Resco de Dios, an environmental engineer at the University of Lleida.
Adaptation to these soaring temperatures is key to survival. In the hottest possible scenario, high levels of adaptation can make a difference in survival rates.
“Adaptation starts with relatively simple solutions – although they are not free – such as installing air conditioning or creating spaces that serve as climate shelters,” explains Víctor Resco de Dios.
In addition to the aforementioned solutions, other more complex measures can make a difference, namely “increasing green areas in cities to mitigate the urban heat island – and adapting health systems,” he added.
In the best scenarios, where carbon pollution is cut down, a 50% drop in temperature exposure was enough to reduce the number of net deaths.
Sources: (The Guardian) (Nature)
See also: Scientists confirm 2024 breached 1.5°C global warming limit
Temperature-related deaths could increase by 50% in Europe by 2100
More than 800 cities were analyzed
LIFESTYLE Climate change
A study published on January 25, 2025, found that dangerous temperatures might result in a 50% increase in deaths among Europeans by 2100. The study looked at future heat-related and cold-related mortality considering climate change. It took into account demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities. In this gallery, we’ll dive deep into the study and bring you the highlights. Click on to learn more.