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Global warming -

The climate crisis is no longer a distant threat confined to the realm of disaster movies. The stark reality of our warming planet is undeniable, with 2024 marking a grim milestone: the hottest year on record and the first to exceed the critical 1.5°C (2.7°F) global warming threshold.

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Arid conditions -

A sobering report unveiled at the 2024 UNCCD conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, (COP16) by the UN Convention to Combat Desertification revealed that over three-quarters of the Earth's land surface is experiencing a permanent drying trend, transforming an area roughly the size of Australia from humid to arid.

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Life changing -

These radical changes to entire biospheres add up to the chain reaction that not only causes natural disasters, increasing their severity, but simultaneously forces a shift in the way we live and organize as a society.

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Climate migration -

The pursuit of basic human needs—escaping disasters, securing access to clean water, and living in a climate that doesn't threaten survival—will only intensify in the face of climate change. Climate migration is no longer a distant threat, but a present reality.

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Climate migration -

Climate-related hazards, such as devastating floods, powerful storms, and raging wildfires, are already driving global human displacement, with over 26.4 million people displaced in 2023 alone, according to the Migration Data Portal.

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Breaking records -

Urban centers are increasingly vulnerable to climate change's intensifying impacts. This was evident in 2024 when record-breaking temperatures scorched the US and parts of Europe. 

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US heatwaves -

Over 100 million Americans endured sweltering heat alerts, while the West Coast, particularly California's valleys, experienced an unrelenting heatwave with temperatures reaching a staggering 115°F (46.1°C).

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Global outlook -

Experts warn that the situation will only worsen, extending far beyond occasional heatwaves. Alarmingly, new NASA studies predict that within the next 30 to 50 years, certain regions of the world may become uninhabitable due to extreme heat.

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US focus -

A recent study also pinpointed US counties with significant and vulnerable populations facing heightened risks from heat stress, water scarcity, and wildfires. This research underscores the escalating climate hazards confronting the rapidly growing population of the Sun Belt.

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What determines uninhabitability? -

To predict whether regions may become uninhabitable due to extreme heat, scientists employ two key metrics: the heat index and the wet bulb temperature. These measures assess the level of human discomfort caused by heat and the associated health risks.

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Heat index -

Considering both air temperature and humidity in shaded areas, this metric provides a more accurate reflection of how hot it actually feels. While our bodies can effectively cool themselves through sweat evaporation even in high temperatures, this process becomes less efficient in hot and humid conditions.

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Wet bulb temperature -

Also known as the wet thermometer temperature, this metric represents the lowest temperature an object can reach through evaporative cooling. It reflects our body's capacity to cool itself through perspiration in hot and humid environments.

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Reaching the limit -

When a critical threshold of heat and humidity is reached, our bodies can no longer effectively regulate their temperature, posing a significant risk of heat-related fatalities.

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Safe levels -

Most hot and humid regions on Earth typically experience wet bulb temperatures between 25°C and 27°C  (77°F and 81°F). While this level of heat and humidity can cause significant discomfort, it generally poses minimal health risks for the average person, except during strenuous physical activity.

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Danger zone -

Scientific research suggests that the human body can only withstand a wet bulb temperature of 35°C (95°F) for a maximum of six hours. Exceeding this threshold significantly increases the risk of heat-related fatalities.

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Uninhabitable regions -

Building upon these observations and employing sophisticated forecasting models that incorporate the trajectory of global warming, NASA has undertaken the critical task of identifying regions where the wet bulb index is projected to exceed the human survivability threshold.

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South Asia -

Satellite data and weather stations across the globe have already documented instances of wet bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F) on several occasions over the past fifteen years. These concerning events have primarily occurred in the subtropical regions of Pakistan and the Persian Gulf.

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Red Sea borders -

By 2050, countries bordering the Red Sea, such as Egypt, may frequently experience wet bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F), potentially rendering these regions uninhabitable during periods of intense heat and humidity.

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Eastern China -

With soaring temperatures already a stark reality, Shanghai experienced a staggering 26 days in August 2024 where temperatures exceeded 35°C (95°F). This alarming trend points towards a future where parts of Eastern China could become increasingly uninhabitable.

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Tropical South America -

By 2070, significant portions of Brazil, particularly the western and northern regions, may become increasingly uninhabitable. The relentless march of deforestation in the Amazon, coupled with the intensifying impacts of global climate change, is projected to generate extreme heat stress levels in Northern Brazil, potentially exceeding the limits of human adaptation.

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Northeast India and coastal West Africa -

Already grappling with limited access to cooling infrastructure and low adaptive capacity, these regions are particularly vulnerable. These areas, experiencing rapid population growth, face heightened concerns from specialists about their long-term habitability as extreme heat events become more frequent and intense.

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Heating up -

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that a global temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels could lead to a staggering four-fold increase in the frequency of extreme heat events by the end of the century.

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Life risking -

This alarming projection signifies a future where heat-related casualties will become increasingly common, extending far beyond regions currently experiencing frequent wet bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F).

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Heat-related deaths -

Scientists warn that heat-related deaths can occur even with wet bulb temperatures below 35°C (95°F). The 2021 heatwave in the Northwest US and Western Canada tragically illustrated this, with 1,400 fatalities despite wet bulb temperatures remaining below 25°C (77°F).

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US impact -

The report 'Changing Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability in the Conterminous United States, 2020–2070' explores how climate change could render certain regions of the US uninhabitable.

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Southern states -

Accounting for varying rates of population growth and warming, the study identified Arizona and Florida as facing heightened vulnerability. These southern states, characterized by rapid population growth, entrenched societal inequities, and a surge in climate-related hazards, are particularly susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change.

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Most vulnerable -

The study revealed a significant overlap between counties at high risk for heat stress and drought and those with large, vulnerable populations. The 2023 Phoenix heatwave, where record-breaking temperatures exceeded 43°C (110°F) for over 18 consecutive days severely impacted vulnerable communities, including residents of "The Zone," a large homeless encampment.

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Wildfire hazard -

The study predicts a doubling of high-hazard wildfire areas and a tripling of medium-high-hazard areas by 2070. While the West will face intensified wildfires, the Southeast will also experience a surge. The population exposed to these fires is projected to increase dramatically, from two million in 2020 to a potential 9-20 million by 2070.

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Droughts intensify -

The report concludes with a sobering projection: by 2070, drought conditions will significantly intensify in southwestern Texas, southern Louisiana, and vast regions of New Mexico and Arizona. Concurrently, millions more Americans across the nation will face increased exposure to extreme heat stress.

Sources: (Inside Climate News) (Meteored) (ABC News) (Planet Tracker)

See also: The countries that will most likely survive climate change

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