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Living on the brink -

The specter of nuclear annihilation has loomed over us since World War II. Yet, some moments during the Cold War stand out as especially tense, when the balance between peace and catastrophe hung by the thinnest of threads.

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Close calls -

The Cuban Missile Crisis saw moments where nuclear disaster seemed imminent, with tensions reaching a boiling point. Years later, in 1979, a computer glitch at NORAD nearly triggered a US nuclear retaliation—another chilling reminder of how fragile peace can be.

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The fragility of peace -

The NORAD glitch serves as a frightening reminder of how easily a simple technical error or an improbable sequence of events could bring the world to the brink of nuclear disaster.

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A random error away from catastrophe -

While we might trust that world leaders wouldn’t gamble with mutually assured destruction, can we be as certain that a random error couldn’t spark an unintended nuclear conflict? The story of Stanislav Petrov shows how alarmingly plausible that scenario is.

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The unexpected hero -

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov was a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet Air Defence Forces who could easily have lived an accomplished but historically unremarkable life. But on September 26, 1983, an unforeseen set of circumstances led to him preventing nuclear armageddon and becoming a hero.

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High stakes -

In the dead of night, Soviet early-warning systems sounded the alarm—several American intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) appeared to be en route. The established military protocol demanded an immediate nuclear counterstrike. The stakes couldn't have been higher.

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Escalation to missile strike -

A piercing siren shattered the air as the early warning system reported the detection of a second, third, fourth, and fifth missile. The status escalated swiftly from "Launch" to "Missile Strike."

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Critical decision -

Petrov faced the gravest decision of his life; the chilling data, deemed of the highest reliability, provided him with all the evidence necessary to persuade his superiors to initiate immediate nuclear retaliation.

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MAD -

The doctrine of mutually assured destruction (MAD), which underpinned the Cold War's dangerous dance of nuclear brinkmanship, depended heavily on early warning systems. Petrov's system was now signaling that five US Minuteman missiles were en route to Russia, leaving the MAD strategy to demand a retaliatory nuclear strike.

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Ten years of silence -

After the incident, Petrov kept silent for 10 years. "I thought it was shameful for the Soviet army that our system failed in this way," he says.

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The risk that saved humanity -

Petrov, who was tasked with reporting enemy missile launches, chose an unconventional path. Instead of alerting his superiors, he dismissed the warnings as a false alarm, which was a direct violation of protocol. Playing it safe would have meant passing the decision up the chain, but Petrov's decision changed the course of history.

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The decision of a lifetime -

Recalling that life-altering moment in 2013, Petrov shared with the BBC: "All I had to do was reach for the phone and connect to our top commanders. But I couldn’t move... I felt like I was sitting on a hot frying pan."

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High alert -

The stakes were monumental, and it would have been understandable for Petrov to fear the worst. Relations between the Soviet Union and the United States had soured significantly during President Reagan's time in office, leaving the Kremlin on high alert for a possible nuclear strike. What could've been their answer?

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The "launch under attack" strategy -

Earlier, the Soviet Union already adopted measures to enable the "launch under attack" strategy ('ответно-встречный удар'). This approach aimed to exploit the fact that even a meticulously planned American strike couldn’t simultaneously eliminate all strategic targets in the Soviet Union.

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Ensuring a retaliatory strike -

This strategy allowed for some missiles to launch successfully even as others were neutralized in an attack. Implementing the launch under attack approach demanded significant investment, but by the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union was steadily progressing toward this capability.

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Waiting for certainty -

The key point is that the Soviet Union's protocol required confirmation of actual nuclear detonations on its territory before launching a response. No action would have been taken solely on the basis of an early-warning system alarm, especially not from a single segment like the satellites.

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The perception of threat -

Nevertheless, in the pre-digital era with limited knowledge, the Soviet Union officials were fearing the worst. Cold War expert Bruce G. Blair argues that the Soviets perceived the US government as gearing up for a first strike, with President Ronald Reagan viewed as someone who might authorize such an action.

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High tensions -

The warning came at a perilous moment, amplifying the pressure on Petrov. Reagan's aggressive nuclear stance had left the USSR ready to retaliate at a moment’s notice. In this hair-trigger scenario, Petrov knew that involving his superiors could lead to an immediate and catastrophic response. Pictured is Mikhail Gorbachev, then-president of the Soviet Union.

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Trusting the system or intuition -

The system rated the alert’s reliability as "highest," leaving little room for doubt—America had launched a missile. Petrov recalls: "A minute later, the siren went off again. The second missile was launched. Then the third, the fourth, and the fifth. The computers updated their alerts from "launch" to "missile strike."

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Conflicting signals -

Despite the seemingly undeniable nature of the alert, Petrov harbored doubts. While he and other IT specialists monitored the situation, Soviet radar operators—tasked with tracking US missile activity—reported that their systems showed no signs of incoming missiles.

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Protocol vs. judgment -

Those operators were merely a support service, and as mentioned earlier, protocol dictated that decisions were to be based solely on computer readouts. As the duty officer, the responsibility rested squarely on Petrov's shoulders. However, the unusually strong and unmistakable nature of the alert triggered his skepticism.

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Reporting a malfunction -

The retired officer explained: “There were 28 or 29 security levels. Once a target was identified, it had to pass through all of those checkpoints. Given the circumstances, I wasn’t entirely sure that was possible.”

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False alarm -

Trusting his instincts, Petrov contacted the Soviet army headquarters and reported a system malfunction. It took guts to declare the alarm a false one, but what might have unfolded if he’d stayed silent or confirmed it as real? We’ll never know—and neither did he. All he knew was that he had to act to stop the unthinkable.

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The longest minutes in history -

"Twenty-three minutes passed, and still—nothing. If there had been a real strike, I’d have known by then. What a relief!" Petrov recalls, smiling at the memory that shaped history.

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The 50-50 gamble -

Three decades later, Petrov reflects that the odds were a mere 50-50, as he was never entirely sure the alert was false. He was also the only officer on his team with a civilian education, while his colleagues, mostly trained soldiers, focused on following orders. Had anyone else been on shift, the alarm could have been escalated.

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The chilling math -

In 1983, estimates suggested a Soviet nuclear strike on the US could have killed 82 to 180 million people. The grim logic of mutually assured destruction meant a US counter strike would have added another 54 to 108 million lives to the toll. A sobering reminder of how close the world came to catastrophe.

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Well-deserved commendation -

After the Soviet Union collapsed, Petrov’s story finally made headlines, earning him several international awards. Yet, he remains modest about his actions. "That was my job," he says. "But they were lucky I was on shift that night." 

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Underappreciated heroism -

Amid the nerve-wracking history of Cold War close calls, Stanislav Petrov's tale is uniquely chilling. His calm decision-making averted devastation on an unimaginable scale, yet his heroism remains underappreciated. Surely, a name that saved millions deserves to be remembered in history.

Sources: (Armscontrol.org) (Vox) (BBC) (History Hit)

See also: Recalling the collapse of Communism in Europe

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