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Tracing SARS-CoV-2's origins -

Extensive discussions with virologists and experts across related fields have reinforced the certainty that SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19, originated from a spillover event at a wet market in China. 

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The lab-origin theory -

The theory that SARS-CoV-2 originated from research in a Chinese lab is contradicted by extensive scientific evidence. Research supports the virus’s natural emergence via zoonotic spillover, which refers to the transmission of pathogens from animals to humans.

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Scientific evidence vs. public perception -

One might assume that consulting experts and examining scientific evidence would clarify the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, despite overwhelming research supporting a natural spillover, many Americans believe in the lab leak theory.

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Examining the scientific evidence -

Dr. Philipp Markolin’s book, 'Lab Leak Fever,' recently released in Europe, delves into the extensive scientific evidence surrounding COVID-19’s origins. While still seeking a publisher in the US, his work challenges misinformation and highlights research-backed conclusions.

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The power of stories in science and reasoning -

Humans are not impervious to facts or reasoning; evidence and arguments have the power to shift perspectives. While we are not entirely irrational, we often overlook a key truth: storytelling is central to human understanding, helping us make sense of our world and circumstances.

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Science vs. fiction in the information age -

Science faces a unique challenge in the digital era: while fiction can be tailored for engagement, facts often cannot. Complex, evolving scientific explanations often must compete with polished narratives crafted by expert storytellers, making misinformation more appealing than truth.

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Science vs. fiction in the information age -

To give science a fair chance against engaging fiction, communicators, writers, and advocates must harness their expertise to craft compelling and intelligent narratives. Strengthening scientific storytelling ensures facts remain competitive in an era dominated by viral misinformation.

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Debunking the myth -

Markolin’s book reveals that the "scientific" lab-origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 was never grounded in credible evidence. Instead, it consisted of speculations and baseless claims shaped to satisfy the interests of audiences, governments, and influential groups.

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Debunking the myth -

These ideas were not presented to build a scientific argument but were crafted to manipulate emotions. They fueled suspicions, capturing audiences emotionally and promoting a nihilistic perspective where truth is undermined and anything seems plausible.

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The vulnerabilities of our information ecosystem -

Markolin’s book also highlights critical flaws in our information ecosystem. These weaknesses enable exploitation by powerful entities and create an imbalance that undermines facts, science, and evidence, leaving truth vulnerable to distortion.

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The perils of losing a shared reality -

Losing connection to shared facts threatens consensus and problem-solving worldwide. Today, we witness the rise of dangerous movements rooted in old, oppressive ideologies.

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The persistent influence of myths -

The lab leak myth endures in public discourse, driven by its emotional appeal to believers and the strategic interests of those who propagate it. Its amplification through media ensures its survival, despite scientific evidence debunking it.

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Circumstantial evidence and the lab leak theory -

Many people cite suspicious factors to argue for the lab leak theory, including the Wuhan Institute of Virology’s proximity to the wet market, previous biosafety incidents at the institute, as well as the Chinese government’s secrecy. 

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The role of proximity in SARS-CoV-2's origins -

But proximity to the lab raises questions: what are the odds of a novel virus emerging solely in a wet market hosting animals susceptible to such pathogens, if its origin were a lab located just 10 miles (16 kilometers) away? 

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The role of proximity in SARS-CoV-2's origins -

Lab proximity may not be a decisive factor in the virus origin debate, as many Chinese megacities host multiple coronavirus labs involved in sampling or collaborations with international institutions. 

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China's narrative control -

China’s control over information reinforces its narrative that the virus did not originate in the wet market, despite the government’s simultaneous pledge to improve hygiene standards in similar markets nationwide.

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China's narrative control -

At the same time, China denied the presence of wild mammals at the market, suppressed supplier investigations, disposed of untested animals, and restricted bat research on SARS-CoV-2 relatives. 

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The wildlife trade -

The illegal wildlife trade is linked to organized criminal networks, with some reports suggesting complicity among local officials. In the case of the Huanan market, unconfirmed claims have surfaced about the owner's possible connections to President Xi Jinping’s family, adding another layer of complexity to the issue.

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Scientific censorship and the market origin debate -

Chinese researchers face restrictions on discussing a market origin, and publications are vetted by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and political figures. Reports suggest social media censors remove content supporting the market hypothesis while allowing lab-origin speculation to circulate.

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Genomic clues to SARS-CoV-2’s natural origin -

Strong scientific evidence for SARS-CoV-2’s origins lies within its genome; the virus exhibits a mosaic genome, meaning segments of its genetic code are present in various known wild viruses. This pattern strongly supports a natural spillover rather than laboratory manipulation.

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Evidence of natural evolution -

More importantly, SARS-CoV-2’s mosaic genome reveals a complex evolutionary history, with at least 27 distinct genetic fragments showing stronger similarities to wild viruses than to lab-studied strains. This disproves theories suggesting artificial genetic manipulation.

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Evidence of natural evolution -

As Linfa Wang, Professor in the Programme in Emerging Infectious Diseases at Duke-NUS Medical School states: “Making a virus like SARS-CoV-2, before nature came up with it, is impossible.”

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A myth in disguise -

Unlike traditional conspiracy theories, which are often complex, the “lab leak theory” is rooted in speculation; it thrives on its simplicity and emotional resonance: “Somebody in the lab messed up.”

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The absence of a scientific lab leak hypothesis -

The fact is, a true scientific “lab leak theory” has never been formulated; no study has proposed a testable hypothesis explaining how a lab could create SARS-CoV-2’s mosaic genome or how a lab leak could result in two virus lineages spreading from a wildlife market.

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Premature dismissal of the lab leak theory -

That being said, the lab accident hypothesis was prematurely dismissed due to disinformation campaigns during 2020, particularly from the Trump administration. Rejecting the lab leak theory without evidence was equally unscientific.

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The strength of the zoonotic origin theory -

Understanding the theory that the virus spread from animals to humans requires expertise across multiple disciplines: bats, spillovers, coronaviruses, viral evolution, epidemiology, and history—all contributing pieces to a larger scientific puzzle. 

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The strength of the zoonotic origin theory -

Once these independent lines of scientific evidence converge to tell the same story, they form an unshakable foundation that cannot be swayed by media-driven conspiracies. 

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The growing risk of viral pandemics -

Modern connectivity, mobility, and transport hubs, combined with habitat destruction, are making viral pandemics increasingly likely. As humans encroach on nature, more opportunities arise for viruses to spill over and rapidly spread into urban environments.

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A test run for anti-science tactics -

The lab leak narrative in the US became a testing ground for anti-science strategies, including canceling research grants, scapegoating scientists, and using state power to undermine scientific independence. 

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The global risks of extremist narratives in science -

The erosion of scientific integrity in the US is causing profound harm to people, prosperity, and the planet. The interconnected information age has enabled extremist politics and fascist mythmaking, threatening to spread globally unless collective wisdom prevails.

Sources: (Big Think) (TIME) (BBC) (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

See also: The signs and symptoms of Long COVID

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