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Roots of India-Pakistan conflict -

The India-Pakistan conflict traces back to the 1947 Partition of British India, which created Muslim-majority Pakistan and Hindu-majority India. Jammu and Kashmir, a diverse region, was given the choice to join either nation, setting the stage for ongoing disputes.

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Kashmir's path to accession -

Kashmir's Maharaja Hari Singh initially pursued independence due to the region's historical neglect under various empires. However, faced with invading Pakistani herders, he chose to accede to India in return for military aid, sparking the Indo-Pakistani War of 1947-48.

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The Karachi Agreement of 1949 -

The Karachi Agreement of 1949 brought a temporary end to violence in Jammu and Kashmir by creating a ceasefire line (CFL). This line was monitored by a UN truce subcommittee, aiming to maintain peace in the disputed region.

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Escalating conflicts: wars of 1965 and 1971 -

Tensions erupted into war in 1965 following border skirmishes. In 1971, India and Pakistan clashed again, this time over East Pakistan, when Indian forces aided East Pakistan in achieving independence, leading to the formation of modern-day Bangladesh.

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The Shimla Agreement: a new boundary for Kashmir -

In 1972, India and Pakistan sought better relations through the Shimla Agreement, which created the Line of Control (LOC). This temporary military boundary divided Kashmir into two administrative regions.

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The emergence of a nuclear arms race -

In 1974, the India-Pakistan conflict entered a heightened phase as India tested its first nuclear weapon, initiating a nuclear arms race. Pakistan achieved the same milestone two decades later, escalating the stakes of future confrontations.

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Pakistan's role in Kashmir resistance -

In 1989, Pakistan leveraged a growing resistance movement in Indian-administered Kashmir to challenge Indian authority. This intervention reignited long-standing tensions and marked the beginning of decades filled with communal unrest and violence in the region.

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From Kargil to ongoing border clashes -

Although Pakistan and India reaffirmed the Line of Control in 1999, the Kargil War erupted after Pakistani soldiers crossed it. Despite a fragile ceasefire since 2003, cross-border fire remains frequent, with both nations accusing each other of initiating violations.

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The 2008 Mumbai attacks -

In 2008, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after militants attacked Mumbai, killing 166 people over three days, including six Americans. India and the US blamed Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba for the assault, a group linked to Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI.

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A glimmer of hope for India-Pakistan relations -

In 2014, optimism for peace emerged when India's newly elected Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration.

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Optimism quickly turns to tension -

But hopes for peace in 2014 were short-lived when India canceled talks with Pakistan’s foreign minister. The decision followed a meeting between Pakistan’s high commissioner in India and Kashmiri separatist leaders, reigniting tensions between the two nations.

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The Uri attack and stalled diplomacy -

In September 2016, peace efforts were again derailed after militants attacked an Indian Army base in Uri near the LOC, killing 18 soldiers in the deadliest assault on Indian forces in decades. Indian officials blamed Jaish-e-Mohammad, a group allegedly also linked to Pakistan's ISI.

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Intensifying skirmishes and civilian impact -

Between late 2016 and 2018, border skirmishes across the Line of Control escalated, resulting in dozens of fatalities and displacing thousands of civilians. In 2017 alone, over 3,000 cross-border strikes were reported, with nearly 1,000 incidents recorded in the first half of 2018.

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Ceasefires amid rising tensions -

Following months of military action in Kashmir, India declared a Ramadan ceasefire in May 2018, its first in nearly 20 years. Operations resumed in June, but later that month India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire along the disputed border, reaffirming their 2003 pact.

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Kashmir's autonomy diminished -

In August 2019, India deployed tens of thousands of troops to Jammu and Kashmir before revoking Article 370 of the constitution. This decision stripped the region of its special status, subjected it to Indian property and customary laws, and significantly reduced its autonomy.

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The Modi government strategy -

The revocation of Article 370 marked a decisive shift in the Modi government approach to Kashmir. By emphasizing Hindu nationalism, this move aimed to integrate the region more firmly into India, reflecting a broader ideological and political strategy.

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Lockdowns and media suppression -

After Article 370 was revoked, India-administered Kashmir faced over a year of lockdowns, with disrupted internet and phone services and thousands detained. By 2022–2023, the Indian government intensified media restrictions and redrew electoral boundaries to favor Hindu-majority areas.

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Rising violence and militarized responses -

Targeted killings of Hindus have surged, prompting protests and displacement. In response, the Modi government adopted a more militarized approach, while deadly clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces along the border continued throughout 2023.

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Escalating violence amid territorial consolidation -

In 2024, violence persisted in Kashmir as New Delhi intensified efforts to consolidate control over the region. Attacks increasingly targeted Indian travelers and workers, reflecting the heightened tensions and unrest.

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A deadly attack in Kashmir -

On April 22, 2025, militants targeted Indian tourists in Kashmir, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese national. This tragic event marked the deadliest terrorist attack on Indian soil since the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

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Blame and denial -

India accused Pakistan of sheltering the group behind the April 2025 attack, arresting two Pakistani nationals as suspects. Pakistan denied involvement and suggested the incident was a “false flag operation,” reflecting the deep mistrust between the two nations.

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Claim of responsibility -

While no group has been officially identified as responsible for the Pahalgam attack, the Kashmir Resistance, a faction linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility online. In response, authorities destroyed the house of LeT militant Aadil Thoker in Guree village in south Kashmir.

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Reciprocal measures -

Following the attack, New Delhi initiated steps to downgrade the already fragile relations, starting with the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan then accused India of suddenly releasing water into the Jhelum River without informing Pakistani authorities.

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Reciprocal measures -

In response to India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan dismissed the move and cautioned that any alteration to the flow of the Indus River would be deemed “an act of war.”

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Reciprocal measures -

India revoked a visa-free travel agreement with Pakistan and shut down the Attari border crossing. In retaliation, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian commercial airlines, ended a special visa program for Indian citizens, and suspended bilateral trade.

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Daily clashes and international calls for peace -

Since the attack, Indian and Pakistani forces have engaged in daily exchanges of fire along the Line of Control. The US and China have urged both nations to de-escalate tensions, with Beijing pushing for an independent investigation into the incident.

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Military threats and missile tests -

In the aftermath of the April attack, Islamabad and New Delhi have exchanged military threats. India’s navy conducted long-range missile tests, signaling a significant escalation in the standoff between the two nations.

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Fears of imminent conflict -

On April 28, 2025, Pakistan’s defense ministry stated its belief that an Indian military strike on Pakistani territory was "imminent." In response, the Pakistan military began preparing reinforcements.

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Crackdown in Kashmir -

Amid rising tensions, India has intensified its security crackdown in Kashmir. In the wake of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, authorities have arrested more than 1,500 Kashmiris and demolished homes of those suspected of militant ties.

Sources: (Council on Foreign Relations) (Associated Press) (Asia Society) (Al Jazeera)

See also: How the global arms trade shapes conflicts and influences world politics

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