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What is NATO? -

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is an intergovernmental military alliance of 31 member states—29 European and two North American. It was established in the aftermath of the Second World War, on April 4, 1949.

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Freedom and security under threat -

Headquartered in Brussels, Belgium, NATO's purpose is to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means. But that freedom and security is currently under threat.

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Putin could attack -

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attack a NATO country "within five to eight years." Pistorius made his dire prediction during an interview with the Berlin-based Der Tagesspiegel newspaper.

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Sweden expresses concern -

Pistorius' remarks coincided with similar warnings by Sweden's Minister for Civil Defense Carl-Oskar Bohlin, who said that "war could come to Sweden."

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Estonia urges unity -

Other government figures have also spoken out and underlined the German defense minister's basic assessment, including Estonia's President Kaja Kallas. Speaking to the UK's The Times newspaper, she said: "Our intelligence estimates it to be three to five years [for Russia to return as a serious military threat on NATO's eastern flank] and that very much depends on how we manage our unity and keep our posture regarding Ukraine." Russia wants a pause, she added, "and this pause is to gather its resources and strength. Weakness provokes aggressors, so weakness provokes Russia."

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NATO chief worried -

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also warns of the real risk of a Russian attack on NATO countries.

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Steadfast Defender -

Germany's warning came as Britain's Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that the UK will send 20,000 armed forces personnel to one of NATO's largest exercises since the Cold War: "Steadfast Defender." The military exercise drills comprising 90,000 troops will run through June and practice repelling an invasion by Putin's forces.

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Is Putin looking for more trouble? -

As these warnings were being digested, German newspaper Bild leaked secret plans drawn up by the German ministry of defense that sketched out a vision of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine could spill over into a NATO-wide conflict.

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Consequences of Ukraine invasion -

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. According to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), at least 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children, have been killed and over 18,500 have been injured since the full-scale attack.

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War in 18 months? -

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has on numerous occasions requested more military aid from the West. And the leaked plans, described as an "exercise scenario," detail how Russia could escalate the conflict in Ukraine to an all-out war in just 18 months.

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New recruits mobilized -

According to the scenario, titled "Alliance Defense 2025," the Kremlin would mobilize 200,000 new recruits in February 2024 for a new offensive in Ukraine. This would allow Moscow to make significant advances on the ground by June.

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Cyber attacks -

Taking advantage of this success, Putin would then begin covert cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare on the West and East-Central Europe and, in particular, the Baltic states.

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False narratives -

By inciting Russian-speaking minorities in the Baltic states to turn against their neighbors, Moscow would then use the political crisis in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to weave a false narrative that these minorities were being unfairly targeted to a degree that demands intervention.

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Zapad 2024 -

In response, Putin would launch a large-scale exercise called "Zapad 2024" in September, involving at least 50,000 Russian troops in Belarus and western Russia.

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Important ally -

Putin can rely on Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko for logistical support, although the two men have long had a fractious personal relationship beneath the public friendliness. Lukashenko is regarded as a Putin puppet, but is seen by the Kremlin as an important ally. In a 2023 interview, Lukashenko was quoted as remarking, "The only mistake" Russia and Belarus made was "that we didn’t resolve this issue in 2014-2015, when Ukraine had no army and wasn’t prepared."

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A move on Kaliningrad -

At the conclusion of Zapad 2024, Putin would go one step further and move troops and medium-range missiles to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

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Baltic states at risk -

Kaliningrad, which Putin visited on January 25, 2024, after the Kremlin said "militaristic statements" from Baltic countries posed a risk to the region, sits uncomfortably between Poland and Lithuania.

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Making their move -

While Russian troops maneuvered into position, Moscow would continue to make overtures to the West, with the likes of Sergey Lavrov (Russian foreign minister) and Sergei Shoigu (Russian minister of defense, pictured) insisting NATO was preparing to attack Russia and posed a threat to its national security.

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The Suwałki Gap -

According to the German government, Russian troops would very likely target the strategically vital Suwałki Gap, a strip of land inside the Polish border with Lithuania and sandwiched between Kaliningrad and Belarus.

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No deterrent -

The fact that thousands of NATO troops, including UK soldiers, are currently deployed to the Baltics would not deter Putin in attempting to block the Suwałki Gap, the leaked documents suggest.

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A 'tripwire' force -

Indeed, NATO troops stationed in and around the Suwałki Gap are only intended as a 'tripwire' force. Their principle role is to hold up any invading force until the main NATO army can arrive.

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"Riots with numerous deaths" -

By December 2024, Moscow's propaganda machine would be peddling false claims about a border conflict and "riots with numerous deaths" in the Suwałki Gap, according to the documents.

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Anti-NATO narrative -

Equally worrying, the Kremlin would push forward anti-NATO narratives at home, claiming that the alliance was preparing to attack Russia.

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A waiting game -

After it became clear that Moscow's ultimate goal was to occupy the Suwałki Gap, Russia would wait until the US election to begin the second phase of its plan.

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How the US election might play its part -

In the event of a Joe Biden defeat, the US would effectively be left without a leader for a few weeks. This is when Putin would begin his attack on NATO soil, according to the doomsday scenario. It's not clear what the reaction of Donald Trump—a NATO sceptic—would be if he won the election.

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More threats -

"Alliance Defense 2025" then suggests that during an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council, Moscow would again accuse the West of preparing to attack Russia.

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Russian troop movements -

By March 2025 and during increased chaos and concern, the Kremlin would move even more troops towards Belarus and the Baltics.

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"Measures for credible deterrence" -

This would lead to a situation where, by May, NATO would have no other option but to approve "measures for credible deterrence" to forestall a Russian invasion of Poland and the Baltic states.

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Day X -

Ominously, on an undisclosed date named "Day X," NATO would deploy 300,000 troops to the area, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers (German armed forces)—a move that could cause unease among some.

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Extremely unlikely, or a given fact? -

While the document is certainly frightening, a spokesperson for the German Ministry of Defense told international news media that the country is not committing to one definite scenario. "Even if they are extremely unlikely [different scenarios are] part of everyday military business, especially in training," the spokesperson said.

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NATO flexes its muscle -

Meanwhile, military exercise Steadfast Defender is taking place in the North Atlantic, Norwegian Sea, and the Baltic Sea. The second stage involves 90,000 NATO troops being deployed across Eastern Europe from mid-February to June, taking with them tanks, artillery, helicopters, and parachutes.

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Putin's annual state of the nation address -

On February 29, 2024, Putin delivered his annual address on the state of the nation. Naturally, the speech centered on the status of the war in Ukraine and the future of the conflict. On the one hand, he dismissed claims that Russia plans to attack Europe as "nonsense," but he went on to warn that nuclear war may be on the cards if Western countries send troops to fight in Ukraine. “Everything that they are coming up with now, with which they threaten the entire world – all this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore the destruction of civilization – don’t they understand this, or what?” Putin said in his address. He went on to remind the people that Russia has nuclear weapons that can hit Western targets on their own territory. 

Sources: (Der Tagesspiegel) (ZDFheute) (Bild) (Euronews) (The Times) (Reuters) (HRMMU)(Politico) (Sky News) 

See also: What you might not know about NATO

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