Extreme heat linked to this year’s powerful El Niño could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The September 23 report estimates that the number of extremely hot days will rise by about 44% compared with a typical year. Nigeria is projected to see the highest number of additional heat-related deaths, followed by Indonesia and Sudan, with parts of Africa’s Sahel region and Southeast Asia among the areas facing the greatest risks.
Researchers warn the toll could rise further if El Niño continues well into 2027, particularly when summer reaches vulnerable countries such as India and Pakistan. They say early warning systems and targeted emergency measures could still prevent many deaths.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern, but it is unfolding against a much hotter background caused by climate change. While climate change is often seen as a distant concern, warnings like this are a stark reminder that its effects can reach into our everyday lives.
But how would you describe the consequences of climate change on your daily life? Click on to see its impact.