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Is space becoming militarized? -

The May 17, 2024, launch by Russia of a Soyuz 2.1b vehicle (like the one seen in this photo), which American defense analysts say is carrying a satellite capable of attacking other such probes, is further evidence that space is becoming militarized.

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Russia vetoes UN resolution -

On April 24, 2024, Russia vetoed a UN resolution sponsored by the United States and Japan calling on all nations to prevent a dangerous nuclear arms race in outer space. Russia opposed the motion; China abstained.  

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US raises suspicions over Moscow's decision -

The United States ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said after the vote that President Putin had previously indicated that Moscow had no intention of deploying nuclear weapons in space, so "why, if you are following the rules, would you not support a resolution that reaffirms them?" she asked. 

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"Troubling" -

Putin was responding to White House confirmation in February that Russia has obtained a "troubling" anti-satellite weapon capability, although such a weapon is not operational yet. Confusingly, Russia itself circulated a UN resolution, calling on all countries to take urgent action to prevent putting weapons in outer space "for all time" a week after it vetoed the US-Japan resolution. So, what's going on? 

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Strategic alliance -

In May 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in China, ostensibly to strengthen strategic and personal ties between the two nations, and to seek an alternative to US global influence.

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Russia launches reconnaissance satellites -

Seven months earlier, on October 23, 2023, Russia had launched into space from the Plesetsk cosmodrome a Soyuz rocket carrying two reconnaissance satellites—Cosmos-2570 and Cosmos-2571. 

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The X-37B space plane -

On December 28, 2023, America's X-37B lifted off from Cape Canaveral. The X-37B, also known as the Orbital Test Vehicle, is a reusable robotic spacecraft that after being boosted into space by a launch vehicle can re-enter Earth's atmosphere and land as a spaceplane. 

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China's "divine dragon" -

A fortnight earlier, China's own reusable robotic spaceplane, Shenlong, or "divine dragon," was launched. 

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Additional Chinese satellites -

Earlier still, on December 9, 2023, a Chinese Zhuque-2 Y-3 rocket carrying three satellites—Honghu, Honghu-2, and TY-33—blasted off from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center. 

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Iran's Ballistic missile aims -

Then on January 28, 2024, Iran said it had simultaneously launched three satellites amid regional conflicts using a Simorgh rocket. The launch was immediately condemned by several Western nations, which have long accused Iran of using satellite launches to further the nation's long-range ballistic missile program. 

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India's anti-satellite weapons capability -

And as if to remind the world of its own space military capability, back in January 2020, India paraded A DRDO anti-satellite weapons system in New Delhi as part of Republic Day celebrations. 

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Low-cost rockets -

Access to space today is cheaper than ever, thanks largely to low-cost rockets designed, manufactured, and launched by SpaceX.

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Project Kuiper -

And space is set to become even more crowded. Project Kuiper, for example, is an initiative by Amazon to increase global broadband access through a constellation of 3,236 satellites in low Earth orbit. 

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Record number of launches -

And here's an interesting statistic. The number of satellites successfully orbited in 2023 hit a record high at 2,917, versus 2,485 in 2022 and only 216 in 2016. Of these, only 66 are owned and/or operated by militaries, according to Breaking Defense. 

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Fighting beyond the atmosphere? -

But as countries race to develop new capabilities in space, the fear is that some are also building the forces and weapons to fight beyond the atmosphere. 

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Beginning of the Space Race -

The launch by the Soviet Union of Sputnik 1, the first artificial Earth satellite, on October 4, 1957, caught the United States napping and triggered the Space Race.  

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Outer Space Treaty -

Ten years later as the Cold War raged, the Outer Space Treaty was signed. This multilateral treaty "bans the stationing of weapons of mass destruction in outer space, prohibits military activities on celestial bodies, and details legally binding rules governing the peaceful exploration and use of space," according to the Arms Control Association. However, it is silent on conventional weapons.

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Strategic Defense Initiative -

In 1983, the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) was announced by US President Ronald Reagan. Quickly dubbed "Star Wars," SDI was intended to defend the United States from attack from Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles by intercepting the missiles at various phases of their flight. The president is pictured with a bumper sticker that reads: "SDI could ruin a nuclear bomb's whole day. 

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United States Space Command -

Two years later, on September 23, 1985, the United States Space Command (SPACECOM) was established. SPACECOM is responsible for military operations in outer space. 

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"Star Wars" -

The SDI program received more than US$23 billion from the Reagan administration. In 1989 it was assigned 17% of the entire Defense Department budget. 

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How was SDI suppose to work? -

SDI involved many layers of technology that would enable the United States to identify and automatically destroy a large number of incoming ballistic missiles as they were launched, as they flew, and as they approached their targets. 

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Use of lasers -

Though largely ground- and sea-based, with laser cannon fired from a command center into space, SDI also proposed space-based battle stations.  

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Brilliant Pebbles -

One of the more outlandish concepts was the Brilliant Pebbles ballistic missile defense system. Brilliant Pebbles were to be small, lightweight spacecraft that could stop Soviet-launched advanced ballistic missiles. 

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Homing Overlay Experiment -

Another wayward idea was the Homing Overlay Experiment (HOE). HOE used a kinetic kill vehicle (KKV) designed to destroy a ballistic missile and was in fact successful in intercepting a mock ballistic missile warhead outside the Earth's atmosphere. The KKV employed an umbrella skeleton, or "circular saw," to collide with a missile as it reentered Earth's atmosphere. 

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Too expensive, too complicated -

Ultimately, SDI proved too expensive and impossible to make a reality. By the early 1990s, with the Cold War ending and nuclear arsenals being reduced, political support for SDI collapsed. The program was scrapped in 1993. SPACECOM, however, continued to operate. 

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SPACECOM -

SPACECOM was later disestablished in 2002, and its responsibilities and forces merged into United States Strategic Command. However, it was reestablished in August 2019, with a reemphasized focus on space as a warfighting domain. Today, SPACECOM monitors about 15 daily missile launches, from Ukraine to Iraq and North Korea. 

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A new chapter in the space war -

It's Russia's invasion of Ukraine that has opened a new chapter in the space war. The conflict has driven a race for tactical and strategic advantage through technology. But America's biggest fear is China.

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China perceived as biggest threat -

Chinese spaceplanes such as the aforementioned Shenlong, or "divine dragon," are perceived as the biggest threat. Space planes' ability to undertake long missions, deliver and capture payloads, change orbit, and return to Earth to refuel make them potentially important weapons.

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Russia's fleet of "kill vehicles" -

And Russia's Cosmos 2570 and 2571 satellites have been described by American commanders as "nesting doll[s],” with such things looking like a test of a "kill vehicle," in other words a projectile for destroying satellites.

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Exploring the dark side -

And what of China's latest foray to the Moon? On May 3, 2024, Chang'e- 6 was launched, its mission to obtain a sample of soil and rock from the far side of the Moon. The launch marked the first of three uncrewed missions to the lunar surface planned by China this decade and is seen as the latest stage in the country's space exploration program that is competing with the US.

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The Artemis program -

For its part, the United States is planning to send astronauts back to the Moon for the first time since 1972. The main aim of the Artemis program, led by NASA, is to establish a permanent base on the Moon to facilitate human missions to Mars.

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The next generation -

The prospect of becoming a player in this brave new world has prompted a number of start-ups to direct their efforts into helping the United States win a war in space by designing groundbreaking new spaceships and vehicles such as the innovative Supernova satellite bus. Built by Seattle-based start-up Portal Space Systems, its designers promise fine-tuned orbital agility and a range 50 times greater than current spacecraft.

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"Stewards for military space" -

Meanwhile, the battle for military supremacy in outer space continues. SPACECOM has already called for the US to become "stewards for military space" through its 'Vision for 2020' program. Today its aims remain the same: "Integrating space forces into warfighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict." 

Sources: (Associated Press) (Russian Forces) (Space) (Vox) (Arms Control Association) (US Department of State) (Centre for Emerging Technology and Security) (The Economist) (Global Security Institute) 

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