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What are they? -

The National Planning Scenarios were developed by the US government to aid in preparing for a range of potential catastrophic events. The 15 scenarios, which cover a variety of natural and man-made disasters, are designed to be used for emergency preparedness and response.

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Nuclear detonation -

The first scenario listed in the plan involves the hypothetical detonation of a nuclear device in a major metropolitan area. The explosion would cause massive destruction within a one-mile (1.6-km)  radius, resulting in high fatalities and injuries from the blast, as well as thermal radiation and initial nuclear radiation.

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Nuclear detonation -

To deter a catastrophe like this from happening requires exponential effort from law enforcement to prevent the development of a nuclear device on American soil, or the import of it from another country. But in the event that the detonation occurs anyway, the scenario’s emergency response would involve search and rescue, medical care for radiation sickness, and extensive decontamination efforts. 

On August 20, President Biden approved new secret nuclear strategy amid China's rapid expansion in its nuclear arsenal.

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Aerosol anthrax -

In this scenario, anthrax spores are used as a biological attack against the US population. They are dispersed as an aerosol in a densely populated area, leading to widespread infections, with symptoms including severe respiratory distress and fatality.

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Aerosol anthrax -

The attack would most assuredly cause widespread panic that would overwhelm healthcare facilities around the country. The health of the public would rely on isolating infected people, decontaminating affected areas, and distributing enough antibiotics and vaccines for everyone.

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Pandemic influenza -

The third scenario is all about the outbreak of a new and highly contagious influenza virus that causes a global pandemic. The virus would result in widespread illness and high mortality rates, especially among vulnerable populations. Healthcare systems would be strained due to a surge in patients needing intensive care.

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Pandemic influenza -

For an influenza pandemic such as this, the best course of action would be to initiate a mass vaccination campaign, at least once a vaccine has been synthesized. Antiviral medicine would also need to be distributed, and travel restrictions should be put in place to slow the spread of the virus.

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Plague -

The fourth scenario also involves a biological attack, this time via the highly contagious pneumonic plague. In this scenario, bacteria from this plague is intentionally released into a populated area, quickly infecting a large number of people and causing them to experience severe respiratory symptoms, including coughing up blood.

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Plague -

Without rapid treatment, the disease can be fatal. Response efforts from the government would focus on quickly identifying and treating cases, as well as implementing quarantine measures and providing public health information to promote awareness of signs and symptoms.

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Blister agent -

Scenario five involves the release of a blister agent, such as mustard gas, in a public location. Using blister agents is a form of chemical warfare that causes severe chemical burns and blisters on the skin. If breathed in, they can cause life-threatening internal injuries.

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Blister agent -

Since blister agents are fast-working, an immediate response would be needed to decontaminate people and the area. Medical services would be needed for chemical burns as well. The environment around the affected location would also require extensive attention, since the blister agent could easily be caught by the wind and spread to neighboring areas.

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Toxic industrial chemicals -

This hypothetical scenario considers what would happen if terrorists target various petroleum refineries and destroy them using grenades. This would release large quantities of toxic industrial chemicals into the surrounding area, causing a range of health consequences, from respiratory distress to chemical burns.

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Toxic industrial chemicals -

Tens of thousands of people could potentially be impacted by the spread of chemicals. The government’s response would involve evacuating the area and ensuring that the chemical spill is contained and neutralized. Even the water supply of the vicinity could be impacted, and so environmental agencies would need to provide crucial input in the spill’s cleanup.

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Nerve agent -

Another chemical attack that was foreseen by the government involves the release of a human-made nerve agent in a crowded public space. Nerve agents are intensely more powerful than pesticides, but they disrupt the body’s nervous system in the same way, leading to convulsions, respiratory failure, and death if left untreated.

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Nerve agent -

Much like with blister agents, a nerve agent could also easily be caught in the wind and spread to tens of thousands of people. Extensive evacuation would be needed while emergency services focus on rapid decontamination and the administering of antidotes.

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Chlorine tank explosion -

The last chemical attack scenario involves an explosion at a chlorine storage facility that releases a large cloud of chlorine gas into the atmosphere. Chlorine gas is highly toxic, stays close to the ground, and spreads rapidly. It can cause major respiratory issues, eye and skin irritation, and potentially a fatal pulmonary edema.

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Chlorine tank explosion -

Aside from containing the chlorine gas leak, the scenario outlines that the best response would be to evacuate any downwind areas and decontaminate waterways. Potentially thousands of deaths would occur due to the exposure to chlorine gas, and the perpetrators would need to be apprehended before they can cause another explosion.

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Major earthquake -

The ninth scenario predicts a potential natural disaster rather than one that is man-made. In the event that a major earthquake (greater than a magnitude 7.5 on the Richter scale) tears through a metropolitan area, millions of people could be left either dead, injured, or homeless. Indeed, devastating structural damage would be the norm, while electricity and water would be extremely limited.

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Major earthquake -

A lot of the emergency response would involve search and rescue operations, medical care for the injured, and providing shelter and basic necessities for displaced individuals. Interestingly, the scenario also outlines the necessity of the government to protect critical facilities in the area so that potential terrorist attacks can be avoided.

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Major hurricane -

In this scenario, a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 155 mph (249 km/h) makes landfall in a heavily populated coastal area. The hurricane would bring devastating winds, storm surges, and flooding, causing extensive damage to homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure.

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Major hurricane -

Since hurricanes often make landfall on the United States’ east coast, emergency services have had a lot of practice in addressing each individual aspect of hurricane disasters. Emergency response would focus on evacuations and setting up shelters for displaced individuals, while recovery efforts would involve debris removal and restoring essential utilities.

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Radiological dispersal device -

The 11th scenario takes a look at terrorism once again, and involves the detonation of a radiological dispersal device (or so-called "dirty bomb") in a major city. The explosion would spread radioactive material over a wide area, causing contamination and potential radiation sickness in a massive population.

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Radiological dispersal device -

Radiation poisoning is destructive and truly life-threatening. Depending on the material used by the terrorists, the government’s response would need to include various measures of evacuation and medical attention for radiation exposure. Long-term efforts would focus on environmental cleanup and health monitoring for those people who were exposed.

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Bombings -

This scenario involves multiple coordinated bombings using improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in crowded public areas, resulting in mass casualties and significant structural damage. The scenario even includes the bombing of various evacuation points, including a nearby hospital, in order to create the most amount of chaos and panic.

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Bombings -

Emergency response would first focus on public safety and providing medical care. In fact, all emergency departments would be dispatched to deal with fires and injuries, as well as search and rescue efforts. Law enforcement would work to apprehend the perpetrators and avoid any further damage.

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Food contamination -

In this scenario, a toxic biological agent is intentionally injected into the food supply, causing widespread illness. Although significant security measures have been put in place in the US food industry since 2001, this scenario considers the possibility that a terrorist group obtains sensitive information that can be used to contaminate a large supply of food.

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Food contamination -

The primary response in this scenario would be to recall all contaminated food products and provide medical care for those affected. Following this, a thorough investigation would need to be undertaken to trace the source of the biological agent and decontaminate the area.

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Foreign animal disease -

In this scenario, a terrorist group intentionally introduces foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) into the livestock population. FMD is highly contagious among cloven-hoofed animals and can devastate the agricultural sector. While the disease is not considered a human threat, it can cause major food shortages and result in chaos and disorder.

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Foreign animal disease -

The first step to address the issue involves the mass culling of infected and exposed animals. Quarantines would need to be implemented so that the entire nation’s livestock population doesn’t dwindle. This scenario would most likely have devastating long-term consequences.

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Cyber attack - The last scenario listed by the government involves a coordinated cyber attack that targets the nation’s critical internet-related infrastructure, such as power grids, financial systems, or communication networks. The attack could lead to widespread disorder, economic losses, and concerns for public safety.

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Cyber attack -

A cyber attack of this magnitude would need major defensive efforts. Indeed, the government would need to collaborate heavily with the private sector and other countries in order to identify and remove the cyber threat so that affected services can be restored. Since this type of attack does not work with a physical location, it is arguably one of the most difficult to address.

Sources: (Public Intelligence) (Homeland Security)

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