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NATO Secretary General warns its response would be ‘devastating’ if Russia attacks Poland -

During his recent visit to Warsaw, Poland, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte gave a warning that, should Russia decide to attack Poland or any other members of the alliance, the response would be “devastating.”

“If anyone were to make a miscalculation, thinking that they would be able to attack Poland without consequences or attack any other ally, our Alliance will respond forcefully. Our response will be devastating,” Rutte said during a press briefing where Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk was present.

Rutte also praised Poland’s contributions to NATO’s joint budget, and appealed to European leaders to unite and scale up their defense capabilities.

Indeed, the relationship between NATO and Russia is in deep crisis. Vladimir Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine's civilian population and on the battlefield is taken very seriously by the Alliance, which has condemned Russia’s irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and coercive nuclear signaling. In fact, the once cordial partnership between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Russian Federation is at its lowest since the dark days of the Cold War. NATO leaders believe Russia poses a direct threat to the Alliance, but their collective condemnation is falling on deaf ears in Moscow.

So, how has a previously constructive relationship between NATO and Russia turned so fractious? Click through this gallery and find out more about why Russia fell out with NATO.

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Treaty of Brussels -

The Treaty of Brussels was signed on March 17, 1948, as an expansion of the Treaty of Dunkirk, drawn up in 1947 to guard against possible German or Soviet aggression after the end of the Second World War.

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North Atlantic Treaty -

On April 4, 1949, Western leaders gathered in Washington, D.C. to sign the North Atlantic Treaty. The chief executive called the pact "a positive, not a negative influence for peace."

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Establishment of NATO -

The North Atlantic Treaty is implemented by NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. NATO was created to provide collective security against the Soviet Union.

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The Korean War and the Soviet threat -

In June 1950, North Korea, supported by the Soviet Union, invaded South Korea. This conflict created fear among NATO members of a communist takeover.

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The Warsaw Pact is formed -

A key event within the Cold War occurred on May 6, 1955, when the Federal Republic of Germany joined NATO. This was seen as a direct threat to the USSR and their position in East Germany. As a result of this move, the USSR formed the rival Warsaw Pact, which included Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, East Germany, and Albania.

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The Berlin Wall is built -

The building of the Berlin Wall in 1961 marked an escalation in Cold War tensions. It was during this period that doubts were raised over the credibility of NATO defense capability against a prospective Soviet invasion.

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NATO and the Cold War -

Throughout the Cold War, NATO focused on collective defense and the protection of its members from potential threats emanating from the Soviet Union. The tense standoff between Washington and Moscow during the Cuban missile crisis is widely considered the closest the Cold War came to escalating into full-scale nuclear war.

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End of the Cold War -

The end of the Cold War and dissolution of the Soviet Union in December 1991 was a turning point in Europe's history. From 1991, NATO began to work hard to establish a strategic partnership with Russia. This led to the establishment of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, created to improve relations between NATO and non-NATO countries in Europe and Central Asia.

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Partnership for Peace -

In 1994, Russia joined the Partnership for Peace program (PFP). The NATO-led initiative is aimed at creating trust and cooperation between the member states of NATO and other states mostly in Europe, including post-Soviet states. But PFP members suspended partnership with Russia after it invaded Crimea, on Ukraine soil, in 2014.

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NATO–Russia Founding Act -

The signing of the NATO–Russia Founding Act in 1997 saw both parties express their determination to "build together a lasting and inclusive peace in the Euro-Atlantic area on the
principles of democracy and cooperative security" and of human rights and civil liberties. Crucially, Russia pledged not to threaten or use force against NATO allies and any other state.

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The aftermath of 9/11 -

In the wake of the September 11 terrorists attacks in the United States, Russian President Vladimir Putin reached out to US President George W. Bush and even shared intelligence with Washington, which proved vital to the US forces in Afghanistan. As a member of NATO, the United States' newly constructive relationship with Russia would positively impact Russian-NATO relations.

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NATO-Russia Council -

In 2002, the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) was formed. The idea behind the NRC was to meet at least once a month at ambassadorial level and twice per year at the level of defense and foreign ministers, to discuss issues of common concern and, if possible, to take joint action.

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NATO-Russia cooperation -

The NRC pact saw NATO and Russia cooperating on supporting each other in Afghanistan. This included Russian provision of transit routes for the International Security Assistance Force operating in the country, and joint training of Afghan army cadets.

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The Georgia crisis -

NATO's previously cordial relationship with Russia suffered a setback when Russia's military action in Georgia in August 2008 led to the suspension of formal meetings of the NATO-Russia Council and cooperation in some areas.

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Diplomacy wins -

At the NATO summit in Strasbourg–Kehl in 2009, leaders acknowledged disagreements with Russia over Georgia, but decided to resume practical and political cooperation.

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A strategic partnership -

During the summit in Lisbon the following year, NATO leaders and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev agreed to embark on "a new stage of cooperation towards a true strategic partnership."

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Operation Vigilant Skies -

This new strategic partnership led to NATO and Russia conducting their first ever joint military exercise, in 2011. Alliance and Russian fighter jets took to the skies in a counter-terrorism exercise codenamed Vigilant Skies, designed to prevent attacks such as the September 11 strikes on the United States.

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Joint military exercises -

The next couple of years saw further joint military exercises taking place, including counter-piracy and submarine-rescue exercises.

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Incursion into Crimea -

But after nearly 30 years of trying to build a partnership with Russia, NATO suspended all cooperation with Moscow after Vladimir Putin's illegal 2014 annexation of Crimea, part of Ukraine's sovereign territory.

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NATO Russian dogfight -

On November 24, 2015, in a little-reported incident, a Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M attack aircraft (similar to the one pictured) near the Syria–Turkey border.

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Cold War memories -

The significance of the shootdown was not lost on Turkey, a NATO member, or the Alliance. The incident was the first destruction of a Russian or Soviet air forces warplane by a NATO member state since an attack on the Sui-ho Dam during the Korean War in 1953.

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Enhanced NATO presence -

Despite Russia's illegal incursion into Crimea, NATO opted to keep open channels of political and military communication. But at the summit in Warsaw in 2016, allies agreed to enhance NATO's military presence in the eastern part of the Alliance, in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland. Predictably, Putin declared NATO's military buildup near the Russian borders as a top military threat.

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The Salisbury nerve agent incident -

The use of a nerve agent to try and poison Sergei Skripal, a former Russian military officer and double agent for the British intelligence agencies, made world headlines. The assassination attempt took place in Salisbury, England, with Skripal's daughter, Yulia, also targeted. Both survived. Putin was directly implicated in the attack and NATO allies expressed their deep concern and condemned as unacceptable this breach of international norms.

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Russia's aggression condemned -

At their meeting in London in 2019, NATO leaders once again condemned Russia's aggressive actions in Crimea, which they declared  constituted a threat to Euro-Atlantic security. But channels for communication still remained open.

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Russia invades Ukraine -

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, relations between NATO and Russia dipped to their lowest point since the Cold War. Putin had effectively torn up the NATO–Russia Founding Act, and allies began imposing severe sanctions on Russia to help deprive the Kremlin's war machine of resources.

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Trump's problem with NATO -

Donald Trump has long been critical of NATO, and his views can be controversial. In February 2024 during a presidential campaign rally, he said that he would "encourage" Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to NATO allies who don't spend enough defense funds. NATO's then secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that comment "undermines all of our security, including that of the US." However, Trump has never gone so far as to suggest he'd urge Russia's aggression towards NATO members.

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Finland and Sweden join NATO -

On April 4, 2023, following Sweden's ascension to NATO, Finland also became a full member of the Alliance. Both countries had chosen to join the organization amid heightened security concerns about Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. NATO's land border with Russia more than doubled as a result, even though only 11% of Russia's land border is shared with NATO countries. Nevertheless, this was enough for Putin to accuse NATO of attempting to encircle the country.

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Ukraine seeks NATO membership -

At the 2024 Washington Summit, NATO allies reaffirmed that Ukraine's future is in NATO and that they will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership. However, no formal invitation has been received by Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and is unlikely to be issued until the war is over.

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Russia's nuclear strike threshold lowered -

On November 17, 2024, the Biden administration's reversal of a ban on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia prompted a response from President Putin, who signed into law changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Russia then struck Ukraine with an apparently new, nuclear-capable intermediate-range missile, the Oreshnik.

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Russia a direct threat to NATO security -

The Russian Federation is the most significant and direct threat to allies' security, warned NATO's secretary-general, Mark Rutte, who added that Putin is using Ukraine as a "testing ground for experimental missiles and is deploying North Korean soldiers in this illegal war."  

Sources: (NATO) (Politico) (ABC News) (CNN) (Reuters) 

See also: What you might not know about NATO

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