A new study published on June 19 in the Earth System Science Data journal warns that humans are on track to emit enough greenhouse gases within the next three years to make limiting global warming to a key international target nearly impossible, while also bringing more extreme weather in the years ahead.
Scientists predict that by early 2028, carbon dioxide emissions will likely push Earth past 1.5°C (2.7°F) of long-term warming above preindustrial levels—a threshold driven mainly by fossil fuel burning and expected sooner than last year’s projections.
The goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C is slipping further away as global temperatures remain alarmingly high. April 2025 was the second-warmest April ever recorded, with average temperatures 1.51°C (34.71°F) above pre-industrial levels, according to data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and the US-based Berkeley Earth.
This marked the 21st month out of 22 to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, underscoring the persistent impact of human-driven climate change. Factors like El Niño have also contributed to the unusual warmth seen in 2024 and 2025. What does breaching this limit mean for the climate crisis, and can we still change course? Explore the gallery to find out.