Asteroid Bennu and its potential to cause an impact winter -

According to a study published recently in 'Science Advances,' there is a 0.037% chance that a medium-sized asteroid could strike Earth next century. 

In addition to causing earthquakes and/or tsunamis, the so-called Bennu asteroid has the potential to cause what experts refer to as an 'impact winter.'

Curious? Check out this gallery to find out more.

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What is asteroid Bennu? -

Asteroid Bennu is a near-Earth asteroid that astronomers believe may collide with Earth as soon as September 2182.

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Small chance -

Although the chance of collision is relatively small (around one in 2,700), the consequences would be disastrous.

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Frequency -

Scientists believe that medium-sized asteroids like Bennu only collide with Earth once every 100,000 – 200,000 years.

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Modeling the consequences -

Given the chance of a collision in the relatively near future, researchers have taken the time to model how the event may affect our planet.

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Possible "impact winter" - Published in February 2025 in Science Advances, their findings reveal the possibility of Bennu causing an "impact winter."

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Studying Bennu -

First, let’s take a closer look at the properties of Bennu, which was recently studied by NASA in their OSIRIS-REx mission.

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Looking at samples -

According to CNN, NASA took samples of asteroid Bennu that showed the space rock contains the "building blocks of life."

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Size -

In terms of its size, Bennu is classified as a medium asteroid, with a diameter of around 1,640 feet (500 meters).

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For perspective -

To put that in perspective, the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was estimated to be around 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) in diameter.

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The last dinosaurs -

The asteroid that caused the extinction of dinosaurs was the last known large asteroid to collide with planet Earth.

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Creating the models -

In order to model the consequences of a Bennu-Earth collision, scientists and researchers used climate models and the aid of the Aleph supercomputer at ICCP.

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Various scenarios -

Their general aim was to establish what might happen if 100 million to 400 million tons of matter were injected into the Earth’s atmosphere.

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Powerful crater -

The researchers' results showed that, at first, the physical impact of Bennu hitting Earth would create a powerful crater.

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Spray at the strike site -

The creation of that crater would, in turn, cause a huge amount of material to spray up into the air around the strike site.

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Shock wave and earthquakes -

A collision with earth, rather than water, would generate a powerful shock wave and trigger potentially devastating earthquakes.

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Climate-altering effects -

The aerosols and gases released into the air by the impact would rise into the atmosphere, changing the climate of our planet with lingering effects.

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Marine strike -

If the asteroid were to strike an ocean, rather than terra firma, it would trigger huge tsunamis and release large amounts of water vapor into the air.

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Ozone depletion -

These events would have the potential to cause long-term global ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere.

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Huge dust cloud -

The most intense scenario that the researchers modeled involved 400 tons of dust swirling into the atmosphere. 

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Global impact winter -

According to the experts, this would lead to a so-called global "impact winter," meaning cold temperatures, reduced sunlight, and decreased precipitation.

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Blocking sunlight -

In the event of an impact winter, the dust particles thrown up by the asteroid strike would absorb and scatter sunlight, preventing it from reaching the surface of Earth.

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Temperature drop -

This reduction in sunlight would cause global temperatures to drop quickly by as much as 7.2°F (4°C).

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Less rainfall -

In turn, this would cause rainfall to drop by as much as 15%, because there would be less evaporation occurring on the ground.

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Ozone depletion -

And just to top things off, according to the study, the ozone may also be depleted by as much as 32%.

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Variables -

How severely the effects of an impact winter would be felt regionally would depend on the precise location where the asteroid strike occurred.

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Duration -

In terms of how long it would last, the results of the study suggest that a global winter could last for more than four years after the initial impact.

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Unfavorable conditions -

With unfavorable climate conditions for plants to grow, there would be an initial 20-30% reduction in photosynthesis in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

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Impact on food security -

This would likely wreak havoc on global food production and cause massive disruptions to food security.

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Previous events -

While modern humans have not lived through an asteroid strike, the climate consequences of such an event may be similar to other "sun-blocking catastrophes."

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Super-eruption of Mount Toba -

The amount of global cooling, for example, may be similar to that which occurred following the super-eruption of Sumatra’s Mount Toba around 74,000 years ago.

Sources: (CNN) (Science Advances)

See also: Seismologists turn to AI to predict the next major earthquake

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