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Obama’s fading nuclear dream -

More than 15 years have passed since Barack Obama delivered his landmark 2009 speech in Prague, where he envisioned a world free of nuclear weapons. While inspiring, Obama’s vision lacked concrete steps, and geopolitical realities have since crushed the hope for nuclear disarmament, leaving the world more divided and vulnerable.

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The first nuclear age -

The first nuclear age, spanning the Cold War, was defined by intense competition between the United States and the Soviet Union. Massive arsenals were built as both superpowers embraced deterrence strategies like mutual assured destruction (MAD), preventing direct conflict through the fear of annihilation.

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The second nuclear age -

Following the Soviet Union's collapse, the second nuclear age emphasized disarmament and counter-proliferation. Landmark agreements like New START and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) symbolized progress. With superpower tensions at a low point, global attention shifted to curbing the spread of nuclear weapons, preventing terrorist access, and dismantling surplus warheads.

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Disarmament’s fleeting golden age -

The post-Cold War period saw progress in disarmament and counter-proliferation, but that optimism has disappeared. Now, states are prioritizing nuclear buildup over diplomacy, eroding the frameworks that once stabilized nuclear tensions and raising fears of escalating global threats.

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The ominous third age -

Admiral Tony Radakin, an officer in the British Navy, has warned of the "third nuclear age," a time defined by the collapse of arms control agreements and the unchecked spread of weaponry. This dangerous period features new nuclear powers and heightened instability that threatens global security.

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Global contributions -

The third nuclear age is marked by many factors, including the expansion of US and Russian nuclear weaponry, China’s rapid arsenal buildup, Russia’s nuclear coercion in Ukraine, North Korea’s growing arsenal, Iran’s potential development, and US allies reconsidering their reliance on American security guarantees.

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Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship -

Russia’s war in Ukraine has showcased the power of nuclear coercion. President Vladimir Putin’s threats and hypersonic missile tests have intimidated adversaries, and they have demonstrated how a nation can leverage nuclear capabilities in active conflicts without resorting to actual detonations.

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The cost of inaction in Ukraine -

Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling has discouraged direct intervention by Ukraine’s allies, which shows how effective Russia’s threats are. But recent Western decisions to support long-range strikes on Russian territory could potentially signal growing defiance against such intimidation.

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The nuclear game of chance -

US intelligence once estimated a 50% chance of Russia using tactical nukes in Ukraine if key territories fell. Russia did lose these territories after all, but the lack of nuclear escalation highlights how close the world came to catastrophe, and how this was only deterred thanks to delicate diplomacy.

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Unchecked nuclear bullying -

Nuclear analysts suggest Russia has exploited its arsenal to intimidate with minimal consequences. This “nuclear bullying” sets a worrying example for other nations and might encourage them to leverage their own arsenals for political and military gain.

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Shifting balance -

Only nine countries are known to be in possession of nuclear weapons. In 1986, the world’s nuclear weapon stockpile consisted of approximately 70,300 warheads, while today that number has declined to 12,100. The US and Russia account for close to 90% of the globe’s current nuclear arsenal. But this has been quickly changing.

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China’s nuclear awakening -

China’s rapid arsenal expansion marks a strategic shift in global armaments. Beijing has been historically restrained in its nuclear arsenal, but has recently been signaling its intention to rival US and Russian nuclear capabilities, driven by perceived threats and ambitions to assert itself as a global power.

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A three-sided arms race -

The nuclear balance is no longer a US-Russia dynamic. China’s rise as a nuclear power complicates global arms control efforts, and has introduced a three-way challenge that makes agreements harder to negotiate.

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China's rising arsenal -

Experts believe that China could potentially own 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. In comparison, the United States owns 5,044 warheads, while the Russian Federation is in possession of 5,580.

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The fall of bilateral treaties -

Historically, US-Russia nuclear deals succeeded due to parity and shared histories. However, China’s smaller arsenal complicates negotiations, as Beijing resists arms limits that could constrain its growth while calling for the US to reduce its stockpiles first.

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Unfinished nuclear diplomacy -

During his first presidential term, Donald Trump sought three-way arms control talks with Russia and China. But Beijing rejected these overtures, viewing such agreements as traps to restrict its strategic development, which left diplomatic gaps unaddressed.

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North Korea’s growing capabilities -

Even North Korea’s nuclear arsenal remains a significant threat, with roughly 50 warheads and advanced missile technology capable of striking the US. Kim Jong Un’s nuclear ambitions continue to evolve, challenging global stability and non-proliferation efforts.

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Iran’s nuclear brinkmanship -

Iran’s nuclear program has accelerated since the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal. With enough enriched uranium to create a bomb within weeks, Tehran’s growing capabilities fuel regional tensions and raise fears of further proliferation.

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The collapse of nuclear guardrails -

Several arms control agreements dissolved during Trump’s first term, including the Iran nuclear deal and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. These losses have weakened global frameworks for managing nuclear threats and have increased instability and risk.

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New START hangs by a thread -

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which places limits on US and Russian warheads and was originally signed by Obama, is nearing expiration in 2026. With Russia suspending their participation and with no replacement treaty in sight, the risk of an unregulated arms race looms larger than ever.

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The weaponization of outer space -

Even the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which strictly prohibits the use of weapons of mass destruction in space, has been brought into question. Intelligence has suggested that Russia is developing an orbital nuclear weapon, which adds another dimension to the already complex nuclear landscape.

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The rise of nuclear testing -

Russia’s withdrawal from the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which bans the live testing of nuclear weaponry, and China’s suspected low-yield tests have also undermined decades of efforts to curb the development and proliferation of advanced warheads.

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America’s modernization dilemma -

The US is engaged in the middle of a 30-year, US$1.5 trillion nuclear modernization program, upgrading its triad of missiles, submarines, and bombers. However, the growing threats from Russia and China may necessitate further investments.

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Ukrainian regrets on disarmament -

Ukraine’s decision to give up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons in exchange for security assurances is viewed by many as a mistake. Russia’s invasion underscores the risks of relying solely on international agreements for national security.

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Trump’s unconventional diplomacy -

Trump’s past nuclear diplomacy with leaders like Kim Jong Un demonstrated a willingness to bypass traditional frameworks. His return could see a continuation of such approaches, though their long-term effectiveness remains uncertain.

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The specter of nuclear use -

The risk of a nuclear weapon being used is rising. From tactical nukes in Ukraine to regional tensions in Asia and the Middle East, global hot spots are pushing the world closer to an unthinkable catastrophe.

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Reassessing nuclear risks -

Experts warn that complacency about nuclear weapons’ dangers is the most troubling trend of the third nuclear age. Renewed focus on education, awareness, and advocacy is essential to mitigate the growing risks of a nuclear disaster.

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The pressure to expand arsenals -

Global trends suggest an increase in nuclear stockpiles is inevitable. The US and its allies must balance the need for deterrence with the dangers of fueling an arms race, striving for stability in a volatile era.

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A precarious nuclear future -

The third nuclear age is fraught with uncertainty. As nations grapple with new challenges and rising threats, the need for innovative diplomacy and renewed focus on arms control has never been more urgent.

Sources: (Vox) (Arms Control Association) (Reuters) (Britannica)

See also: Nations with weapons of mass destruction

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