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A cosmic intruder -

A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, put astronomers on alert due to its 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Now, the probability has increased to more than 6%.

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Playing the odds -

However, there's a higher probability that it may safely pass by Earth. Future observations will help refine these probabilities and potentially dismiss the risk altogether.

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Size matters -

The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet). A rock of this size, if it were to hit, could cause severe regional damage, similar to past asteroid impacts occurring every few thousand years.

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A building-sized behemoth -

Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, has compared the size of 2024 YR4 to that of a large building. There are still a few uncertainties surrounding its actual dimensions, which astronomers are working to clarify.

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Measuring the unknown -

Astronomers estimate an asteroid’s size by measuring its brightness, since brighter objects tend to be larger. But because experts are unsure what 2024 YR4 is exactly made of and how reflective it is, they set upper and lower size limits.

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The blast radius -

If 2024 YR4 were on the larger end of its estimated size and impacted Earth, blast damage could extend 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site. This is enough to level most major cities. But such a scenario remains highly unlikely at this stage.

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A bullet from space -

Speed amplifies the potential danger—if it were to strike Earth, the asteroid would enter the atmosphere at a staggering 38,028 mph (61,200 km/h), unleashing immense energy upon impact.

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Discovery under the stars -

Astronomers at the ATLAS telescope in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. NASA funds multiple sky-scanning programs like ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) to detect near-Earth asteroids before they become a problem.

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The warning sirens -

Automated asteroid-tracking systems immediately flagged 2024 YR4 as a potential risk, placing it at the top of NASA’s Sentry risk list and the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk chart by the end of 2024.

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Watching the wanderer -

Since January 2025, astronomers have been using multiple observatories (including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, pictured, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile) to track and refine calculations on the asteroid’s size and path.

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A retreat into the void -

As 2024 YR4 moves away, it is currently 28 million miles (45 million km) from Earth and increasing that distance. Eventually, it will become too faint to track with smaller telescopes, requiring larger instruments for observation.

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A brief window of visibility -

The asteroid will remain visible through early April 2025, before fading into the depths of space. It won’t return to Earth’s neighborhood until 2028, when fresh observations will refine its projected orbit for 2032.

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A lingering uncertainty -

If 2024 YR4 vanishes from view before scientists can confirm it won’t hit Earth, it will remain on asteroid risk lists until 2028, when it can be reobserved and reassessed.

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The power of tracking -

The longer an asteroid is observed, the more accurate its predicted future position becomes. With additional data, the 6% impact probability could shrink to zero, meaning Earth would no longer be in harm’s way.

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A common celestial scare -

Asteroids often appear threatening when first discovered, but their impact probability usually drops as scientists refine their trajectories. The European Space Agency (ESA) has seen many such cases resolve peacefully over time.

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The hunt for hidden threats -

NASA and ESA track thousands of near-Earth asteroids in the vastness of space, but some remain undiscovered due to their small size and tricky orbits. Advances in detection technology will improve asteroid-spotting capabilities in the future.

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No other known threats -

Currently, there are no large asteroids with a greater than 1% chance of hitting Earth, aside from 2024 YR4. This suggests that for now, our planet remains relatively safe from major asteroid impacts.

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Global asteroid defense -

Two United Nations-endorsed groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), have activated to analyze the potential threat and create response strategies.

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Eyes on the sky -

IAWN is responsible for coordinating global efforts to track and study asteroids, ensuring that scientists share data and refine models to predict potential impacts as accurately as possible.

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Preparing for the worst -

SMPAG is evaluating potential asteroid mitigation tactics—from deflection missions to regional evacuations—should 2024 YR4 remain a serious risk.

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Deflecting danger -

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which was conducted in 2022, demonstrated that it’s possible to change an asteroid’s trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it at high speed. This may become a viable defense strategy in the future.

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A space punch -

DART’s impact in 2022 altered the orbit of Dimorphos, a small asteroid that was orbiting a larger one, by 32 minutes. This success confirmed that kinetic impact technology could be used to redirect potentially hazardous asteroids.

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A closer look at deflection -

ESA currently has a space mission named Hera that is en route to study Dimorphos, and it will determine how much DART’s impact altered the asteroid’s shape and movement. This will provide key insights that will improve future asteroid deflection strategies in case of real-world planetary threats.

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A necessary rehearsal -

Testing asteroid deflection before a real threat arises is crucial. The data from DART and Hera will help refine planetary defense strategies, ensuring that if Earth ever faces an asteroid impact scenario, humanity is prepared to take effective action.

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No need to panic -

Despite the activation of response groups, experts emphasize that there is no need to panic. At this stage, 2024 YR4 is far more likely to miss Earth than to hit it, and upcoming observations will likely confirm it as harmless.

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A different scale -

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is sizable, but it’s far from a planet-shaking extinction event like the one that killed the dinosaurs. The asteroid that decimated the ancient reptiles measured between 6.2 and 9.3 miles (10 – 15 km) in width, while 2024 YR4 is no more than 328 feet (100 meters) wide.

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Measuring the risk -

Astronomers use the Torino scale to rank asteroid impact risks from 0 (harmless) to 10 (catastrophic). Currently, 2024 YR4 sits at 3 on the scale, which is a rare measurement for asteroids to achieve, but still means it poses little danger.

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A sky full of surprises -

The vastness of space means that new asteroids are being discovered all the time. While most pass harmlessly by, some—like 2024 YR4—trigger alerts. Each discovery adds to our knowledge of the solar system and helps improve predictive models for future celestial encounters.

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A safe passage? -

With each new observation, astronomers hope to narrow down uncertainties and eventually rule out any impact risk for 2032. If history is any indication, 2024 YR4 will likely be just another passing traveler in the endless vastness of space, leaving Earth unharmed.

Sources: (CNN) (The Independent) (NPR)

See also: Meteorite and asteroid impact craters found on Earth

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