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0 / 30 Fotos
A cosmic intruder
- A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, put astronomers on alert due to its 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Now, the probability has increased to more than 6%.
© Shutterstock
1 / 30 Fotos
Playing the odds
- However, there's a higher probability that it may safely pass by Earth. Future observations will help refine these probabilities and potentially dismiss the risk altogether.
© Getty Images
2 / 30 Fotos
Size matters
- The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet). A rock of this size, if it were to hit, could cause severe regional damage, similar to past asteroid impacts occurring every few thousand years.
© Shutterstock
3 / 30 Fotos
A building-sized behemoth
- Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, has compared the size of 2024 YR4 to that of a large building. There are still a few uncertainties surrounding its actual dimensions, which astronomers are working to clarify.
© Shutterstock
4 / 30 Fotos
Measuring the unknown
- Astronomers estimate an asteroid’s size by measuring its brightness, since brighter objects tend to be larger. But because experts are unsure what 2024 YR4 is exactly made of and how reflective it is, they set upper and lower size limits.
© Getty Images
5 / 30 Fotos
The blast radius
- If 2024 YR4 were on the larger end of its estimated size and impacted Earth, blast damage could extend 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site. This is enough to level most major cities. But such a scenario remains highly unlikely at this stage.
© Shutterstock
6 / 30 Fotos
A bullet from space
- Speed amplifies the potential danger—if it were to strike Earth, the asteroid would enter the atmosphere at a staggering 38,028 mph (61,200 km/h), unleashing immense energy upon impact.
© Shutterstock
7 / 30 Fotos
Discovery under the stars
- Astronomers at the ATLAS telescope in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. NASA funds multiple sky-scanning programs like ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) to detect near-Earth asteroids before they become a problem.
© Shutterstock
8 / 30 Fotos
The warning sirens
- Automated asteroid-tracking systems immediately flagged 2024 YR4 as a potential risk, placing it at the top of NASA’s Sentry risk list and the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk chart by the end of 2024.
© Shutterstock
9 / 30 Fotos
Watching the wanderer
- Since January 2025, astronomers have been using multiple observatories (including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, pictured, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile) to track and refine calculations on the asteroid’s size and path.
© Shutterstock
10 / 30 Fotos
A retreat into the void
- As 2024 YR4 moves away, it is currently 28 million miles (45 million km) from Earth and increasing that distance. Eventually, it will become too faint to track with smaller telescopes, requiring larger instruments for observation.
© Shutterstock
11 / 30 Fotos
A brief window of visibility
- The asteroid will remain visible through early April 2025, before fading into the depths of space. It won’t return to Earth’s neighborhood until 2028, when fresh observations will refine its projected orbit for 2032.
© Shutterstock
12 / 30 Fotos
A lingering uncertainty
- If 2024 YR4 vanishes from view before scientists can confirm it won’t hit Earth, it will remain on asteroid risk lists until 2028, when it can be reobserved and reassessed.
© Shutterstock
13 / 30 Fotos
The power of tracking
- The longer an asteroid is observed, the more accurate its predicted future position becomes. With additional data, the 6% impact probability could shrink to zero, meaning Earth would no longer be in harm’s way.
© Getty Images
14 / 30 Fotos
A common celestial scare
- Asteroids often appear threatening when first discovered, but their impact probability usually drops as scientists refine their trajectories. The European Space Agency (ESA) has seen many such cases resolve peacefully over time.
© Getty Images
15 / 30 Fotos
The hunt for hidden threats
- NASA and ESA track thousands of near-Earth asteroids in the vastness of space, but some remain undiscovered due to their small size and tricky orbits. Advances in detection technology will improve asteroid-spotting capabilities in the future.
© Shutterstock
16 / 30 Fotos
No other known threats
- Currently, there are no large asteroids with a greater than 1% chance of hitting Earth, aside from 2024 YR4. This suggests that for now, our planet remains relatively safe from major asteroid impacts.
© Shutterstock
17 / 30 Fotos
Global asteroid defense
- Two United Nations-endorsed groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), have activated to analyze the potential threat and create response strategies.
© Shutterstock
18 / 30 Fotos
Eyes on the sky
- IAWN is responsible for coordinating global efforts to track and study asteroids, ensuring that scientists share data and refine models to predict potential impacts as accurately as possible.
© Shutterstock
19 / 30 Fotos
Preparing for the worst
- SMPAG is evaluating potential asteroid mitigation tactics—from deflection missions to regional evacuations—should 2024 YR4 remain a serious risk.
© Getty Images
20 / 30 Fotos
Deflecting danger
- NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which was conducted in 2022, demonstrated that it’s possible to change an asteroid’s trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it at high speed. This may become a viable defense strategy in the future.
© Getty Images
21 / 30 Fotos
A space punch
- DART’s impact in 2022 altered the orbit of Dimorphos, a small asteroid that was orbiting a larger one, by 32 minutes. This success confirmed that kinetic impact technology could be used to redirect potentially hazardous asteroids.
© Getty Images
22 / 30 Fotos
A closer look at deflection
- ESA currently has a space mission named Hera that is en route to study Dimorphos, and it will determine how much DART’s impact altered the asteroid’s shape and movement. This will provide key insights that will improve future asteroid deflection strategies in case of real-world planetary threats.
© Getty Images
23 / 30 Fotos
A necessary rehearsal
- Testing asteroid deflection before a real threat arises is crucial. The data from DART and Hera will help refine planetary defense strategies, ensuring that if Earth ever faces an asteroid impact scenario, humanity is prepared to take effective action.
© Getty Images
24 / 30 Fotos
No need to panic
- Despite the activation of response groups, experts emphasize that there is no need to panic. At this stage, 2024 YR4 is far more likely to miss Earth than to hit it, and upcoming observations will likely confirm it as harmless.
© Getty Images
25 / 30 Fotos
A different scale
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 is sizable, but it’s far from a planet-shaking extinction event like the one that killed the dinosaurs. The asteroid that decimated the ancient reptiles measured between 6.2 and 9.3 miles (10 – 15 km) in width, while 2024 YR4 is no more than 328 feet (100 meters) wide.
© Shutterstock
26 / 30 Fotos
Measuring the risk
- Astronomers use the Torino scale to rank asteroid impact risks from 0 (harmless) to 10 (catastrophic). Currently, 2024 YR4 sits at 3 on the scale, which is a rare measurement for asteroids to achieve, but still means it poses little danger.
© Shutterstock
27 / 30 Fotos
A sky full of surprises
- The vastness of space means that new asteroids are being discovered all the time. While most pass harmlessly by, some—like 2024 YR4—trigger alerts. Each discovery adds to our knowledge of the solar system and helps improve predictive models for future celestial encounters.
© Shutterstock
28 / 30 Fotos
A safe passage?
- With each new observation, astronomers hope to narrow down uncertainties and eventually rule out any impact risk for 2032. If history is any indication, 2024 YR4 will likely be just another passing traveler in the endless vastness of space, leaving Earth unharmed. Sources: (CNN) (The Independent) (NPR) See also: Meteorite and asteroid impact craters found on Earth
© Shutterstock
29 / 30 Fotos
© Shutterstock
0 / 30 Fotos
A cosmic intruder
- A newly discovered asteroid, named 2024 YR4, put astronomers on alert due to its 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032. Now, the probability has increased to more than 6%.
© Shutterstock
1 / 30 Fotos
Playing the odds
- However, there's a higher probability that it may safely pass by Earth. Future observations will help refine these probabilities and potentially dismiss the risk altogether.
© Getty Images
2 / 30 Fotos
Size matters
- The asteroid is estimated to have a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet). A rock of this size, if it were to hit, could cause severe regional damage, similar to past asteroid impacts occurring every few thousand years.
© Shutterstock
3 / 30 Fotos
A building-sized behemoth
- Paul Chodas, director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, has compared the size of 2024 YR4 to that of a large building. There are still a few uncertainties surrounding its actual dimensions, which astronomers are working to clarify.
© Shutterstock
4 / 30 Fotos
Measuring the unknown
- Astronomers estimate an asteroid’s size by measuring its brightness, since brighter objects tend to be larger. But because experts are unsure what 2024 YR4 is exactly made of and how reflective it is, they set upper and lower size limits.
© Getty Images
5 / 30 Fotos
The blast radius
- If 2024 YR4 were on the larger end of its estimated size and impacted Earth, blast damage could extend 31 miles (50 kilometers) from the impact site. This is enough to level most major cities. But such a scenario remains highly unlikely at this stage.
© Shutterstock
6 / 30 Fotos
A bullet from space
- Speed amplifies the potential danger—if it were to strike Earth, the asteroid would enter the atmosphere at a staggering 38,028 mph (61,200 km/h), unleashing immense energy upon impact.
© Shutterstock
7 / 30 Fotos
Discovery under the stars
- Astronomers at the ATLAS telescope in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024. NASA funds multiple sky-scanning programs like ATLAS (Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System) to detect near-Earth asteroids before they become a problem.
© Shutterstock
8 / 30 Fotos
The warning sirens
- Automated asteroid-tracking systems immediately flagged 2024 YR4 as a potential risk, placing it at the top of NASA’s Sentry risk list and the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk chart by the end of 2024.
© Shutterstock
9 / 30 Fotos
Watching the wanderer
- Since January 2025, astronomers have been using multiple observatories (including the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, pictured, and the Very Large Telescope in Chile) to track and refine calculations on the asteroid’s size and path.
© Shutterstock
10 / 30 Fotos
A retreat into the void
- As 2024 YR4 moves away, it is currently 28 million miles (45 million km) from Earth and increasing that distance. Eventually, it will become too faint to track with smaller telescopes, requiring larger instruments for observation.
© Shutterstock
11 / 30 Fotos
A brief window of visibility
- The asteroid will remain visible through early April 2025, before fading into the depths of space. It won’t return to Earth’s neighborhood until 2028, when fresh observations will refine its projected orbit for 2032.
© Shutterstock
12 / 30 Fotos
A lingering uncertainty
- If 2024 YR4 vanishes from view before scientists can confirm it won’t hit Earth, it will remain on asteroid risk lists until 2028, when it can be reobserved and reassessed.
© Shutterstock
13 / 30 Fotos
The power of tracking
- The longer an asteroid is observed, the more accurate its predicted future position becomes. With additional data, the 6% impact probability could shrink to zero, meaning Earth would no longer be in harm’s way.
© Getty Images
14 / 30 Fotos
A common celestial scare
- Asteroids often appear threatening when first discovered, but their impact probability usually drops as scientists refine their trajectories. The European Space Agency (ESA) has seen many such cases resolve peacefully over time.
© Getty Images
15 / 30 Fotos
The hunt for hidden threats
- NASA and ESA track thousands of near-Earth asteroids in the vastness of space, but some remain undiscovered due to their small size and tricky orbits. Advances in detection technology will improve asteroid-spotting capabilities in the future.
© Shutterstock
16 / 30 Fotos
No other known threats
- Currently, there are no large asteroids with a greater than 1% chance of hitting Earth, aside from 2024 YR4. This suggests that for now, our planet remains relatively safe from major asteroid impacts.
© Shutterstock
17 / 30 Fotos
Global asteroid defense
- Two United Nations-endorsed groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), have activated to analyze the potential threat and create response strategies.
© Shutterstock
18 / 30 Fotos
Eyes on the sky
- IAWN is responsible for coordinating global efforts to track and study asteroids, ensuring that scientists share data and refine models to predict potential impacts as accurately as possible.
© Shutterstock
19 / 30 Fotos
Preparing for the worst
- SMPAG is evaluating potential asteroid mitigation tactics—from deflection missions to regional evacuations—should 2024 YR4 remain a serious risk.
© Getty Images
20 / 30 Fotos
Deflecting danger
- NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which was conducted in 2022, demonstrated that it’s possible to change an asteroid’s trajectory by crashing a spacecraft into it at high speed. This may become a viable defense strategy in the future.
© Getty Images
21 / 30 Fotos
A space punch
- DART’s impact in 2022 altered the orbit of Dimorphos, a small asteroid that was orbiting a larger one, by 32 minutes. This success confirmed that kinetic impact technology could be used to redirect potentially hazardous asteroids.
© Getty Images
22 / 30 Fotos
A closer look at deflection
- ESA currently has a space mission named Hera that is en route to study Dimorphos, and it will determine how much DART’s impact altered the asteroid’s shape and movement. This will provide key insights that will improve future asteroid deflection strategies in case of real-world planetary threats.
© Getty Images
23 / 30 Fotos
A necessary rehearsal
- Testing asteroid deflection before a real threat arises is crucial. The data from DART and Hera will help refine planetary defense strategies, ensuring that if Earth ever faces an asteroid impact scenario, humanity is prepared to take effective action.
© Getty Images
24 / 30 Fotos
No need to panic
- Despite the activation of response groups, experts emphasize that there is no need to panic. At this stage, 2024 YR4 is far more likely to miss Earth than to hit it, and upcoming observations will likely confirm it as harmless.
© Getty Images
25 / 30 Fotos
A different scale
- Asteroid 2024 YR4 is sizable, but it’s far from a planet-shaking extinction event like the one that killed the dinosaurs. The asteroid that decimated the ancient reptiles measured between 6.2 and 9.3 miles (10 – 15 km) in width, while 2024 YR4 is no more than 328 feet (100 meters) wide.
© Shutterstock
26 / 30 Fotos
Measuring the risk
- Astronomers use the Torino scale to rank asteroid impact risks from 0 (harmless) to 10 (catastrophic). Currently, 2024 YR4 sits at 3 on the scale, which is a rare measurement for asteroids to achieve, but still means it poses little danger.
© Shutterstock
27 / 30 Fotos
A sky full of surprises
- The vastness of space means that new asteroids are being discovered all the time. While most pass harmlessly by, some—like 2024 YR4—trigger alerts. Each discovery adds to our knowledge of the solar system and helps improve predictive models for future celestial encounters.
© Shutterstock
28 / 30 Fotos
A safe passage?
- With each new observation, astronomers hope to narrow down uncertainties and eventually rule out any impact risk for 2032. If history is any indication, 2024 YR4 will likely be just another passing traveler in the endless vastness of space, leaving Earth unharmed. Sources: (CNN) (The Independent) (NPR) See also: Meteorite and asteroid impact craters found on Earth
© Shutterstock
29 / 30 Fotos
Scientists reveal exact impact zone for 2032 ‘city-destroying’ asteroid
Upon impact, 2024 YR4 could destroy entire cities and create a tsunami
© Shutterstock
Predictions about a "city-destroying" asteroid hurtling toward Earth have raised alarms at space agencies worldwide. At one point, NASA estimated that there was a 3.1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 would impact Earth on December 22, 2032. Now, the asteroid's potential impact risk has reached an all-time high, with the latest AI-powered projections indicating a growing threat.
New calculations from BetIdeas.com now place the probability at over 6%. “There’s been a sharp move in the odds on asteroid YR4 colliding with Earth in 3032, now 16/1 from 22/1 and 28/1 earlier this month,” said Lee Astley, a spokesperson for the site. With a diameter of up to 90 meters (300 feet), about the size of the Statue of Liberty, the asteroid’s impact could cause catastrophic damage to any populated region along its path.
Experts warn that the explosion could be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times the power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. NASA has identified regions where asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike, stretching from northern South America to Asia, including densely populated areas like Chennai, India, and Hainan Island, China.
NASA will continue monitoring the space rock, with the possibility of revising its risk of impacting Earth, as more information becomes available. But where did the asteroid come from? And what role will it play in the future of our planet? Click through this gallery to find out.
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